Officially, Nigeria has over a dozen registered political parties. The ballot papers are long, the logos are colourful, and the constitutional framework, specifically Section 221 of the Constitution, expressly prohibits any association other than a political party from canvassing for votes. This architecture is designed to foster a multi-party democracy. Yet, for any keen observer of Nigerian politics, this theoretical pluralism feels like a mirage. The political landscape is dominated by two lumbering giants: the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). More critically, the system that sustains them seems engineered to prevent the emergence of any genuine alternative, raising a deeply unsettling question: is Nigeria drifting towards a de facto one-party state?
This isn’t about a formal declaration or a constitutional amendment. It’s about the hollowing out of democratic choice. A one-party state is not just defined by the absence of opposition parties, but by the absence of a viable opposition. When the two dominant parties become ideologically indistinguishable, when politicians can defect between them without consequence, and when state institutions appear to favour the incumbent, the voter is left with an illusion of choice, not a real one.
“When the only difference between the ruling party and the main opposition is the name on the banner, the electorate loses its most potent weapon: the power to choose a different path.”
The Great Defection Machine: Ideology as a Flag of Convenience
The most glaring evidence of this democratic decay is the fluid, almost frictionless movement of high-profile politicians between the APC and PDP. Governors, senators, and ministers switch allegiances based on personal ambition and political calculus, not principle. The 2014 defections that weakened the PDP and birthed the APC coalition were not an ideological realignment; they were a corporate merger of political interests seeking power. Since then, the revolving door has not stopped spinning.
This “cross-carpeting” has a corrosive effect:
- It Destroys Accountability: How can citizens hold a party accountable for its manifesto when its key figures were, until recently, members of the party they are now criticising?
- It Erodes Public Trust: It reinforces the cynical public perception that politics is merely a game for the elite, disconnected from the welfare of the people.
- It Homogenizes Policy: With no core ideological differences, the policies of both parties on major issues like the economy, security, and infrastructure are often strikingly similar, focusing on patronage and state-led projects rather than structural reform.
The ease of these defections suggests that the APC and PDP are not political parties in the traditional sense, but rather two rival special purpose vehicles for acquiring state power. The real power lies not in an idea, but in the access to the resources and authority of the state—a dynamic that can lead to abuses of power, whether through the actions of state-level religious police or the overreach of federal agencies.
The Power of Incumbency and Weak Institutions
A functional democracy relies on strong, independent institutions to ensure a level playing field. In Nigeria, there is persistent concern that key bodies like the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the judiciary are susceptible to political pressure. The ruling party, at both federal and state levels, wields immense power over state resources, security apparatus, and media access, creating a formidable barrier for any opposition.
The 2023 general election, while seeing the rise of a potent “third force” in the Labour Party, also highlighted these systemic weaknesses. As noted by a Council on Foreign Relations analysis, while the election demonstrated democratic vitality, it was also marred by logistical failures and allegations of irregularities that ultimately saw the judiciary, not the electorate, having the final say on the outcome. When electoral victory seems contingent on navigating institutional capture and legal challenges, the system incentivizes consolidating power within a single entity rather than fostering open competition.
Is There a Way Out?
While the diagnosis is grim, it’s not terminal. The surge of youth engagement and the performance of the Labour Party in 2023, detailed in in-depth analysis by Stears Business, proved that a significant portion of the electorate is hungry for an alternative. It demonstrated that it is possible to disrupt the duopoly, even if temporarily. However, sustaining this momentum requires more than just charismatic leadership. It requires fundamental reform:
- Electoral and Constitutional Reform: Strengthening INEC’s independence, making electronic voting and transmission of results foolproof and legally binding, and reforming laws to make political defections carry meaningful consequences.
- Party Ideology: A shift from personality-based politics to issue-based, ideologically coherent political parties. This must be driven by citizens demanding more than just patronage.
- Citizen Vigilance: Active and sustained engagement from civil society, the media, and the public to scrutinize government actions and demand accountability, much like the activism that keeps the memory and meaning of figures like Ken Saro-Wiwa alive.
Nigeria is not a one-party state by law, but it is trending towards becoming one by practice. The danger is not just the loss of political choice, but the erosion of governance itself. Without the threat of a viable opposition, the incentive for the ruling class to perform, to be accountable, and to serve the public interest diminishes to almost zero. And that is a price no nation can afford to pay.
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References
- Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999. Available at: constituteproject.org
- Campbell, John. (2023). “Post-Election Report on Nigeria Shows Democracy Advancing and Retreating.” Council on Foreign Relations.
- Stears Business. (2023). “How Peter Obi won and lost the 2023 presidential election.”
- Adebayo, B. (2022). “Political defections and the future of Nigeria’s democracy.” Journal of African Elections.
- Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Official reports and press statements on party conduct and elections.
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